A Technical Review of Urban Land Use-- Transportation Models as Tools for Evaluating Vehicle Travel Reduction Strategies

Frank Southworth
Center for Transportation Analysis
Energy Division

July 1995

Prepared for
Office of Economic, Electricity, and Natural Gas Analysis formerly the Office of Environmental Analysis
U. S. Department of Energy

Prepared by
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831

Managed by
Lockheed Martin Energy Systems, Inc.

For the
U. S. Department of Energy
Under Contract DE-AC05-84OR21400

ORNL-6881

Table of Contents

• Executive Summary
• 1.Introduction
  • 1.1 Urban Travel Growth: Why The Concern?
  • 1.2 Purpose of this Review
  • 1.3 Overview of the Technical Challenge
    • 1.3.1 Conceptual Issues
    • 1.3.2 Practical Issues
  • 1.4 Organization of the Review and Major Conclusions
• 2. Integrated Urban Land Use--Transportation Models
  • 2.1 Overview
  • 2.2 Survey of Empirically Applied Models
    • 2.2.1 Survey of the Literature
    • 2.2.2 Nature of Model Applications
  • 2.3 Modeling the Urban Transportation System
  • 2.4 Linking Transportation And Urban Land Use Models
    • 2.4.1 The Lowry Model and Related Developments
      • 2.4.1.1 Background
      • 2.4.1.2 DRAM, EMPAL, and ITLUP
    • 2.4.2 Normative Planning and Related Mathematical Programming Developments
      • 2.4.2.1 Background
      • 2.4.2.2 The POLIS Model
    • 2.4.3 Multisectoral Spatial Modeling Using Input-Output Frameworks
      • 2.4.3.1 Background
      • 2.4.3.2 The MEPLAN Model
    • 2.4.4 Contributions from Urban Economics
      • 2.4.4.1 Background
      • 2.4.4.2 Kim's Chicago Model
    • 2.4.5 Uses of Micro-Analytic Simulation
      • 2.4.5.1 Background
      • 2.4.5.2 The MASTER Model
  • 2.5 Approaches to Urban Dynamics
    • 2.5.1 Background
    • 2.5.2 The Dortmund Model
• 3. Using Integrated Models in Policy Analysis: An Assessment
  • 3.1 Introduction
  • 3.2 Model Validation Issues
  • 3.3 Theoretical Issues: Towards More Realistic Models
    • 3.3.1 Household Travel Mobility Modeling
      • 3.3.1.1 Criticisms of The Traditional Transportation Planning Model
      • 3.3.1.2 Implications for Modeling Travel Reduction Strategies
      • 3.3.1.3 Some Recent Developments in Travel Demand Modeling
    • 3.3.2 Urban Goods Movement Modeling
    • 3.3.3 Modeling Transportation's Continued Role in Urban Development
      • 3.3.3.1 Transportation Infrastructure Investment Impacts
      • 3.3.3.2 Spatial Agglomeration of Activities
        • Factors in New Urban Center Formation
        • Factors Affecting Travel Within and Between Urban Centers
    • 3.3.4 Simulation of Urban Dynamics
  • 3.4 Practical Issues: Towards More Usable Models
• References

List of Figures

Figure 1. Complexity of Functional Linkages in Urban System Dynamics

Figure 2. Integrated Modeling: General Schematic Flow Chart

Figure 3. Traditional Four Step Urban Transportation Planning Model

Figure 4. Simple Two-Route, Two-Link Congested Traffic Assignment

Figure 5. Integrated Urban Modeling Showing Typical Submodels

Figure 6. Multi-Period, Recursive Simulation of Urban System Dynamics

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This page was updated July 15, 1998.

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